Friday, November 2, 2012

Exponential Curve: Knowledge, Transportation and Communications

Dr. David R. ReaganPDFBy


In this second segment of our exploration of the Exponential Curve, we'll consider the explosion of knowledge, transportation and communications.

2) Knowledge — Another area that is increasing exponentially is knowledge. The prophet Daniel was specifically told that knowledge would vastly increase in the end times (Daniel 12:4), and it has. In fact, we have become so overwhelmed with the flood of new information that it is difficult to find wisdom anymore, because wisdom comes from reflection on knowledge.

AOL

It is estimated that 80% of all scientists who have ever lived are alive today. Every minute they add 2,000 pages to man's scientific knowledge, and the scientific material they produce every 24 hours would take one person five years to read.7 The scientific journals cannot publish all the academic articles that are being written. Many have to limit the articles to one page abstracts, and even then most articles are rejected for a lack of space.

Consider how rapidly knowledge is increasing:8

From Jesus to 1500 it doubled (1,500 years)
1500 to 1750 it doubled again (250 years)
1750 to 1900 it doubled again (150 years)
1900 to 1950 it doubled again (50 years)

Today, knowledge is doubling every 12 months!

That means encyclopedias are out of date before they can be printed, which is the reason they are no longer printed. Britannica stopped printing in 2010 after 244 years.9

I read recently where a research organization had determined that one Sunday issue of the New York Times contains more information than the normal person in the 19th Century was exposed to in a lifetime!10

The most amazing thing to me in the area of information is the World Wide Web that can be accessed through the Internet. Using it, I can access the documents of the Vatican in seconds, and then in a matter of moments, I can go to the Israel Museum in Jerusalem, or I can dart back to the Library of Congress in Washington, D.C. In short, I can access information all over the world without ever leaving my office.

3) Transportation — In 1900 the major means of transportation was what it had always been throughout history — namely, walking and riding a horse. The bicycle had been invented, and the steam engine had been applied to ships and trains. But steam powered transportation was too expensive for most people.

Below is a photograph of 5th Avenue in New York City in 1905. As you can see, the only means of transportation visible is the horse-drawn carriage.

New York City in 1905

I have a similar photo that was taken in my home town of Waco, Texas in 1912. It shows the city square, and like the photo above, all that can be seen are horse-drawn wagons and carriages.

Today we have automobiles (usually two or more to a family!) and airplanes. We have bullet trains that travel 150 miles per hour and planes that travel faster than the speed of sound. And then, of course, there are rocket ships that take astronauts into orbit around the earth.

In 1866 Mark Twain traveled to the Holy Land. It took him three months to get there. Today, a group can get on a jet plane in New York and be in Tel Aviv in 13 hours (and most will complain about how long the trip took!).

During the 19th Century, the average number of miles traveled per year by a person in the United States was 500. Many lived and died and never got outside the county they were born in! By 1900 the average number of miles traveled per year by a person inside the United States had risen to 1,000. Today it is 25,000 miles per year, and many of us put twice that much mileage on an automobile in a year's time.

4) Communications — At the beginning of the 20th Century the telegraph had sped up communications considerably, and the telephone had been invented. But the fundamental means which most people used to get information was still the newspaper.

Today our communication resources are overwhelming. We have telephones, radio and television. We have exotic devices like fax machines, pagers and cellular phones. And we can communicate worldwide through satellites.

I never cease to be amazed when I see someone use a credit card at an Arab shop in the Old City of Jerusalem. The shop may be nothing but a primitive hole in the wall, but over in some dark corner there will be a machine where the merchant can swipe the card. A few moments later he receives an authorization. During those few moments, the card number has been transmitted to Tel Aviv, from Tel Aviv to New York by satellite, from New York to the credit card processing center somewhere in the States, and then back to the Arab shop in Jerusalem!

I am equally amazed at the way I can sit down at a computer at my home or office and use the Internet to send a letter in seconds to almost any place in the world. In 1995 when I got on the Internet, there were only 16 million people using it. Three years later, in 1998, there were 150 million. Today there are 2.2 billion users worldwide!11

Once again, we have the exponential curve.


In the third segment of our exploration of the Exponential Curve, we'll look at more examples and consider the explosive growth of computers, military power and violence.


Notes

7) Seven-Minute Sermons, "Sustainable Knowledge at Work," http://sevenminutesermons.wordpress.com/2012/02/17/sustainable-knowledge-at-work.

8) "Knowledge Doubling," http://epoq.wikia.com/wiki/Knowledge_doubling.

9) Julie Bosman, "After 244 Years, Encyclopaedia Britannica Stops the Presses," The New York Times, March 13, 2012, http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com.

10) Oakton Community College 24/7 Library Research guide and Webletter, "Are You Information Savvy?" www.oakton.edu/user/4/jmayzel/247/savvy.htm, page 1.

11) Sam Nurmi, "Internet 2011 in Numbers," http://royal.pingdom.com/2012/01/17/internte-2011-in-numbers, page 4.

22 comments:

Billy said...

Nathan,

This is off topic but I hope you can answer it. I was browsing through "Christ in Prophecy Study Guide" and I came across this:

Pg. 74 The Jews pray for the destruction of the antichrist.
Psalm 109
"Let his days be few
Let his children be fatherless
And his wife a widow
Let his posterity be cut off"


And yet I've read Dr. Reagan saying the antichrist will be a homosexual.

Can you please explain that considering the verses above?

Thanks if you have the time to respond.

Susie said...

Billy, i have been curious to see nathans response... i dont really feel the a.c will be a homosexual. I know the word says he will have nothing to do with women, but i think thats cuz he will be so narcissistic that he wont care for anything but himself and his power!... just my lil imput:)

Tori said...

Daniel 11:37 " Neither shall he regard the God of his father nor the desire of women nor regard any god; for he shall magnify himself above all."

This does not mean no desire FOR women but rather means he does not desire the long awaited Messiah which was the desire of the Jewish women to be the mother of the Son of God.

Of course this means he could be hetero or not ...
It is really about his distaste for all that is Truth.

Anonymous said...

This is also off topic:

Rev 18:4 And I heard another voice from heaven, saying, Come out of her, my people, that ye be not partakers of her sins, and that ye receive not of her plagues.
I remember the first time I read this,, I was wondering,, how can I come out and what am I coming out of...
today I was going to ask you what you thought, but all of a sudden, a thought came to my mind... maybe he is referring to the RAPTURE.. that would be the only way to come out of her...

I have read that it was the Catholic church.. but then they seem to be fighting Obama on the health care bill. And of course as all religious sects,, there are some good and some bad.. so do you think it might be when he calls us to take us home?

Susie said...

Anon, i think that passage is referring to us... his people... being called to be separate from sinful society.
... of course thats just my humble opinion.. :)
..... do u know where the bible says (something like).... that the testimony of Jesus is the spirit of prophecy??

Anonymous said...

Susie.. it is Rev 19:10.
And I fell at his feet to worship him. And he said unto me, See [thou do it] not: I am thy fellowservant, and of thy brethren that have the testimony of Jesus: worship God: for the testimony of Jesus is the spirit of prophecy.

Here is a great place to look up verses.. you can search and just put some parts of the verse and it will bring up all with those words in it; all I put was spirit of prophecy and it bought up that verse. you can also change versions. and read different versions of the Bible... this is it.. http://www.blueletterbible.org/Bible.cfm

I use it anytime I want to find things.. it is good to know a little bit of the verse, because if I had just put spirit there would have been a lot of them

I have used it for years and sometimes I just read the bible from the internet

Susie said...

Anon!!! Thank u sooo much for the info.. u r a blessing:):):)

Anonymous said...

Susie, here is one you might like... just click on HERE then on the next page, scroll down to king James and click on that.. then you get the Bible on one page. Then click on one of the books of the bible and the verse and it will come up.. I think it is real neat

http://www.jrsbible.info/bible.htm

Anonymous said...

Susie, here is one you might like... just click on HERE then on the next page, scroll down to king James and click on that.. then you get the Bible on one page. Then click on one of the books of the bible and the verse and it will come up.. I think it is real neat

http://www.jrsbible.info/bible.htm

Anonymous said...

I meant when you click on the site, then click on the group of HERE that are in purple.. then the next page hit the King James and all the books and verses are on one page.

Anonymous said...

http://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/Scientific-Proof-of-Bible.php

Here is one some of you might like.. it shows scientific things in the Bible.. and shows the verses, and also the year of century that Man discovered it.. when it was always in the Bible..

here is one of them.

The Earth is round Isaiah 40:22 realized by man in the 15th Century

Susie said...

Anon!!!! I am sooooo excited about all that link up info!! Thank u so much!! :):):)
i absolutely LOVE to go deeper in my study of the WORD! Praise God!
..someday i will thank u with a holy hug right there in person!

DrNofog said...

Anon said "...The Earth is round Isaiah 40:22 realized by man in the 15th Century..."

Sorry Anon, incorrect! That's "The Flat Earth Myth Again"

Con't pt2
Follow up

Hope this helps.

Anonymous said...

Susie, have you ever heard people say that God's time is not the same as Ours and try to use that for the Earth not being built in 7 days..

Well the other day, it hit me when I was reading it.. after each creation, God says: And God called the light Day, and the darkness he called Night. And the evening and the morning were the first day. every time he creates he states that the evening and the morning was the 2nd day and so forth. NO way to say it took millions of years..

Anonymous said...

Thanks DrNofog,

but it is interesting some of the scientific facts in the bible that science only learned in the 1900's

Susie said...

Anon, i totally agree. Have u ever heard of hugh ross? He has a program called reasons to believe. Ultra intelligent scientist .. christian.. he is so awesome but subscribes to the old earth thing.
I was disappointed.

Dr nofog... read ur posts... very interesting and informative

Anonymous said...

DrNofog
Reading your request, I reciprocated!

@ Opus’Man

DrNofog said...

Hi Anon, Susie,
Y'all might like this.
This guy has done a fantastic, monumental work from a strictly scientific perspective! It is written so that the average lay person can understand it, but with plenty of page-links to tons of the scientific data.

Preface
The Scientific Case for Creation
How the data from the 3 main branches of science; the life sciences, the astronomical - physical sciences, and the earth sciences disproves evolution and supports creation.
Fountains of the Great Deep
The Hydroplate Theory - How the Earth explosively fractured from the North pole to the south, creating the Atlantic ocean and dividing the continents.

Susie said...

Dr nofog,
Thank u so much for taking time to help educate! ! I am noting these references ..
God bless

Nathan Jones said...

Billy, Daniel 11:37 explains the Antichrist will "show no regard... for the desire of women." This has been interpreted a number of ways, such as he could be totally indifferent to relationships, that women desire Christ and so he will not (a weak argument in my opinion), that he will be abusive to women, or that he will shy away from women and be attracted to men.

Since the Antichrist is the Anti or opposite of Christ, then he will pervert the natural order of things. Plus, with his timing coming from the rise of acceptance for homosexuality, it seems to me the most logical interpretation of this verse is that the Antichrist will be gay. I can't be dogmatic about that, of course, but it seems the most probable of the different interpretations.

Psalm 109 isn't prophesying that the Antichrist will one day have children, but giving a standard curse from that time period that one's family line is cut off.

Nathan Jones said...

Anonymous, concerning coming out of Babylon in Revelation 18, the timing during the Tribulation of the Antichrist's empire precludes the Rapture from taking place during that time. The Church would have come out of the world at the Rapture before the Tribulation began. Most likely the reference of coming out refers to the Tribulation Saints getting out of town before Babylon's destroyed - "In one hour your doom has come!" (verse 10).

Billy said...

Nathan,

Thanks for the reply. I suppose another explaination is he could be gay yet also married (could be legal worldwide by then) and adopt children. But I think the "common curse of the day" makes sense.

Thanks.